Which experts have real expertise? This video is sponsored by Brilliant. The first 200 people to sign up via https://brilliant.org/veritasium get 20% off a yearly subscription.

Thanks to chess24.com and chessable.com for the clip of Magnus.

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Goldberg, S. B., Rousmaniere, T., Miller, S. D., Whipple, J., Nielsen, S. L., Hoyt, W. T., & Wampold, B. E. (2016). Do psychotherapists improve with time and experience? A longitudinal analysis of outcomes in a clinical setting. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 63(1), 1. – https://ve42.co/goldberg1

Ericsson, K. A., Krampe, R. T., & Tesch-Römer, C. (1993). The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance. Psychological Review, 100(3), 363. – https://ve42.co/anderson3

Egan, D. E., & Schwartz, B. J. (1979). Chunking in recall of symbolic drawings. Memory & Cognition, 7(2), 149-158. – https://ve42.co/chunking1

Tetlock, P. E. (2017). Expert political judgment. In Expert Political Judgment. Princeton University Press. – https://ve42.co/Tetlock

Melton, R. S. (1952). A comparison of clinical and actuarial methods of prediction with an assessment of the relative accuracy of different clinicians. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University of Minnesota.

Meehl, E. P. (1954). Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. University of Minnesota Press. – https://ve42.co/Meehl1954

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. – https://ve42.co/Kahneman

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Written by Derek Muller and Petr Lebedev
Animation by Ivy Tello and Fabio Albertelli
Filmed by Derek Muller and Raquel Nuno
Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images
Music from Epidemic Sound (https://ve42.co/music)
Produced by Derek Muller, Petr Lebedev, and Emily Zhang