Expert predictions rapidly fail, need always to keep up to date with the latest real world situation. Science must be constantly corrected to be consistent with external objective reality.

Symptomatic covid

https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data

US

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?campaign_id=185&emc=edit_yct_20220718&instance_id=66928&nl=coronavirus-tracker®i_id=110300449&segment_id=98826&te=1&user_id=0b87b8c1eea981ec0514047bbfa553ca

Evolutionary driver

Was

Increased transmission advantage

Alpha, Delta

Now

Immune escape

Omicrons, BA.1 BA.2 BA.4/5 BA.2.75
Ability to reinfect even those recently vaccinated or infected

Australian Health Protection Principal Committee

https://www.health.gov.au/comm....ittees-and-groups/au

https://www.health.gov.au/news..../ahppc-statement-on-

Reinfections may occur as early as 28 days after recovery,

People who test positive to COVID-19 more than 28 days after ending isolation due to previous infection should be reported and managed as new cases.

BA.4 and BA.5 associated with increased immune escape,

rates of reinfection rise among previously infected,

and those up to date with their vaccinations

Vaccination continues to be the most important protection against severe illness

English school attendance

19% of secondary pupils absent,

8% of teachers off work

NHS

6 July, 26,874 NHS staff off

Acute and long covid

Stephen Kissler, epidemiologist, Harvard

https://www.theguardian.com/wo....rld/2022/jul/17/unex

The way that the pandemic has played out and is continuing to play out is unexpected

We’d expected strong seasonal wintertime patterns where you don’t see a lot outside those winter months

I would’ve thought it would have reached a steady state by now

It seems the opposite is the case

Prof Peter Openshaw, immunologist, Imperial College London

They are actually becoming more frequent, with one piling in on top of the other

If we let nature follow its course, we will, reach some sort of equilibrium

But it may mean coexisting at a lower level of overall health

Prof Tim Cook, anaesthesia

In many settings, Covid is an inconvenience now,

rather than a threat to life,

but it continues to have a significant impact in healthcare

From a healthcare perspective, the pandemic is not over

Adam Finn, professor, paediatrics, University of Bristol

(UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation)

We’ve more or less given up on the idea of mass immunisation to control the spread of infection.

Vaccinating everyone every three months is just not feasible.

Variant-proof vaccine

Pan-coronavirus vaccine

Nasal vaccine

https://www.principletrial.org..../news/the-principle-

favipiravir and ivermectin, still being studied in the trial.