17 February 2025

The Future of Tourism in NZ: Will We See a Full Recovery?

The Current State of NZ Tourism

Travel & Adventure

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New Zealand’s tourism industry was one of the hardest-hit sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic. With international travel halted and local restrictions in place, businesses in hospitality, adventure tourism, and accommodation suffered massive losses. However, as borders have reopened and global travel rebounds, the question remains: Will NZ’s tourism sector fully recover?

This article examines tourism recovery trends, business adaptations, and key data insights to assess the future of NZ’s tourism industry.

The Current State of NZ Tourism

1. International Visitor Numbers

  • In 2019, international tourists contributed $17.5 billion to the NZ economy, accounting for 20.1% of total export earnings.

  • During the pandemic (2020-2021), international arrivals dropped by more than 95%, leading to widespread closures in the tourism sector.

  • According to Stats NZ, international arrivals in 2023 reached 75% of pre-pandemic levels, showing steady recovery but still below peak levels.

2. Domestic Tourism Trends

  • With border closures, domestic tourism saw a 40% increase in spending in 2021, as Kiwis traveled locally.

  • However, in 2023, domestic travel declined by 12%, as international options became available again.

  • Businesses relying solely on domestic tourists face uncertainty, highlighting the need for a balanced tourism strategy.

3. Tourism Employment & Business Survival

  • Before COVID-19, the tourism sector employed 225,000 people, contributing to 8.4% of total employment.

  • Post-pandemic, workforce shortages remain an issue, with 30% of tourism businesses reporting difficulty in hiring staff (Tourism Industry Aotearoa, 2023).

  • Hospitality wages increased by 15% since 2022, as businesses struggle to attract skilled workers.

How Tourism & Hospitality Businesses Are Adapting

1. Digital Transformation & Smart Tourism

  • Many businesses are adopting AI-powered booking systems and contactless check-ins to improve customer experience.

  • Virtual tourism experiences are on the rise, allowing international visitors to explore attractions digitally before booking trips.

  • Data-driven tourism marketing has increased by 35%, with businesses leveraging AI to predict customer preferences.

2. Sustainable & Eco-Friendly Tourism

  • NZ is promoting carbon-neutral tourism, with 60% of travelers preferring eco-friendly accommodations (NZ Tourism Research, 2023).

  • Government incentives for electric rental fleets, low-emission tours, and carbon offset programs are gaining traction.

  • Eco-lodges, conservation tours, and zero-waste tourism businesses have grown by 25% since 2022.

3. Diversification Beyond Traditional Tourism

  • Many tourism businesses are expanding into wellness tourism, adventure tech, and agritourism.

  • Wine tourism and farm stays have seen a 40% growth in bookings, appealing to high-spending travelers.

  • NZ's film tourism industry, boosted by the popularity of "The Lord of the Rings" and "Avatar" filming locations, continues to attract niche travelers.

Key Challenges for Full Recovery

1. Airline Capacity & Travel Costs

  • International flight capacity to NZ remains 20% below 2019 levels, limiting inbound tourism growth.

  • Airfares to NZ have increased by 30% due to rising fuel costs and limited competition among airlines.

2. Workforce Shortages

  • Many workers left the tourism sector during the pandemic, creating a skills gap.

  • Hospitality job vacancies remain 35% higher than pre-pandemic levels, slowing business recovery.

  • Visa processing delays for foreign workers are impacting recruitment.

3. Economic Uncertainty & Consumer Behavior

  • High inflation and cost-of-living pressures may reduce discretionary spending on travel.

  • Many travelers are opting for shorter trips and budget-friendly accommodations.

  • Competition from other destinations like Australia and Southeast Asia, which offer lower travel costs, remains a challenge.

Future Outlook: Will NZ See a Full Recovery?

Scenario 1: Strong Recovery (Most Likely)

  • International tourism rebounds to 90-100% of pre-pandemic levels by 2025.

  • Sustainable and premium tourism offerings boost per-visitor spending.

  • Investment in aviation capacity and tourism workforce training accelerates growth.

Scenario 2: Slow & Partial Recovery (Possible Risk)

  • Tourism recovery stalls at 80% of pre-pandemic levels due to economic pressures.

  • Flight shortages and workforce constraints limit growth.

  • Domestic tourism weakens as Kiwis opt for international travel.

Scenario 3: Disrupted Recovery (Unlikely)

  • Global economic instability or new health crises limit international travel.

  • Tourism businesses struggle due to unsustainable costs and ongoing staffing issues.

  • NZ loses market share to competing destinations.

Strategies for a Sustainable Tourism Future

1. Expanding Airline Connectivity

  • Encouraging more airlines to operate in NZ can lower airfare prices and increase inbound travel.

  • Investing in regional airports to boost tourism beyond major cities.

2. Building a Skilled Tourism Workforce

  • Offering visa fast-tracking for hospitality and tourism workers.

  • Expanding vocational training and apprenticeships in the industry.

3. Promoting Premium & Sustainable Travel

  • Targeting high-spending travelers through unique eco-tourism and cultural experiences.

  • Strengthening public-private partnerships to support innovation in the tourism sector.

Conclusion: Can NZ Achieve a Full Tourism Recovery?

New Zealand’s tourism industry is on a steady recovery path, but full recovery depends on aviation expansion, workforce solutions, and sustainable tourism growth. With the right strategies, NZ has the potential to reclaim its status as a world-class travel destination.

What are your thoughts? Will NZ tourism fully recover, or will challenges persist? Share your insights in the comments!


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5 Comments

holisticrecoverybali

2 months ago
I feel like I just had an entire lesson on this topic, and I loved every second of it! Thank you for sharing this knowledge. 📚
0 0 Reply
Haha, this was so relatable! 😂
0 0 Reply

FelixThurg

3 months ago
Wow, I actually learned something new today! This post made me see things in a different light, and I’m so glad I stumbled upon it. 🎯
0 0 Reply

Kaliiva Dispensary

3 months ago
This was exactly what I was looking for! The way you laid everything out made it so easy to follow. Thank you for this valuable resource! 🙌
0 0 Reply

gilbertosaltau

3 months ago
This article was incredibly well-written and packed with valuable insights! I learned so much, and it really gave me a new perspective. Thank you for sharing! 🔥
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