The living room of a typical Australian home in 2025 is a battleground of attention. On one screen, a streaming service autoplays the next episode of a global hit, algorithmically selected. On another, a social media feed scrolls endlessly. In the corner, a smart speaker awaits a voice command for music or a podcast. The once-dominant free-to-air television, delivered via antenna and governed by a printed TV guide, now competes in a fragmented, on-demand universe. This shift prompts a stark, almost existential question: is linear, broadcast television on a one-way trip to obsolescence, destined to be completely gone from the Australian landscape by 2035?
The Unraveling of a Monopoly: A Case Study in Disruption
To understand the potential fate of free-to-air (FTA) TV, we must first examine the forces that dismantled its decades-long monopoly. The narrative is not unique to Australia, but the local inflection points are critical. The arrival of subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services, spearheaded by Netflix's 2015 Australian launch, was less an invasion and more a revelation. It exposed a latent consumer demand for control, variety, and commercial-free viewing that the traditional FTA model, bound by rigid schedules and ad breaks, could not satisfy.
Drawing on my experience supporting Australian companies in media and tech, the initial industry response was a textbook case of disruption theory. Incumbents dismissed streaming as a niche for early adopters, then attempted to replicate it with clunky, walled-garden catch-up services like Plus7 and 9Now. These were defensive plays, not transformative visions. The real strategic error was underestimating the profound change in consumer psychology. Audiences were no longer passive recipients of a broadcast schedule; they became active curators of their own entertainment. The remote control's power shifted from changing channels to commanding an entire library.
Case Study: The Nine Network's Digital Pivot – A Tale of Two Strategies
Problem: The Nine Network, a cornerstone of Australian commercial television, faced a dual threat by the late 2010s. Linear viewership, especially among coveted younger demographics, was in structural decline, eroding traditional advertising revenue. Simultaneously, global streamers were siphoning off audience time and talent. Nine's traditional broadcast model, reliant on nightly news, reality TV franchises, and sports rights, was becoming increasingly vulnerable to a generational shift in media consumption.
Action: Nine's response evolved through two distinct phases. Initially, it focused on bolstering its broadcast assets, acquiring the Fairfax media stable in 2018 to gain control of streaming service Stan. This was a holding action. The more significant strategic pivot came with the launch and aggressive promotion of its 9Now platform. Unlike a simple catch-up service, 9Now was positioned as a digital-first destination, offering live streaming of its channels, exclusive digital content, and advanced advertising products like BVOD (Broadcast Video on Demand). Crucially, Nine leveraged its crown jewels—major sporting rights like the NRL and tennis—to drive mandatory adoption of 9Now for live streaming, effectively using sport as a battering ram into the digital lives of viewers.
Result: The data reveals a story of managed transition. While traditional broadcast ratings have continued to soften, Nine's BVOD revenue has seen compound growth. In their 2024 financial results, Nine reported that group digital and publishing earnings (largely driven by Stan and 9Now) had grown to contribute a significant portion of earnings, effectively offsetting declines in pure-play TV advertising. Stan, in particular, reached over 2.6 million subscribers, proving a domestic service could compete with global giants by focusing on local content and sport.
Takeaway: Nine's journey underscores that extinction is not inevitable for FTA entities, but reinvention is non-negotiable. The successful players are those that stop seeing themselves purely as "broadcasters" and start operating as "content and audience companies" with multi-platform distribution. The lesson for the entire Australian media sector is that legacy infrastructure can be a foundation for digital transformation, but only if leveraged with decisive, audience-centric strategy.
What the Data Actually Contradicts
A purely digital-native perspective might declare FTA TV already dead. The reality, particularly in Australia, is far more nuanced and contradicts several sweeping assumptions.
Myth 1: "No One Watches Live TV Anymore." Reality: Live television, especially for major events, remains a colossal cultural force. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, broadcast on the Seven Network, is a prime example. The Matildas' semi-final was the most-watched television program in Australia in over two decades, with a peak broadcast audience of 11.15 million people according to OzTAM. This dwarfs any concurrent streaming numbers and demonstrates that for shared, national moments, linear TV provides an unparalleled scale of live, reliable, and high-quality reach that streaming services still struggle to match consistently across all Australian households.
Myth 2: "Advertising Has Completely Abandoned Broadcast." Reality: While the pie is splitting, broadcast TV still commands a massive share of the advertising wallet. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on Advertising Services, television (including both FTA and subscription) consistently accounts for a significant portion of total advertising spend, still measured in the billions. The key trend is the growth of BVOD, which is often bundled by networks like Seven and Nine in "total TV" packages for advertisers, combining the broad reach of broadcast with the targeted capabilities of digital.
Myth 3: "Free-to-Air is Technologically Obsolete." Reality: The terrestrial broadcast network is a remarkably robust and efficient piece of national infrastructure. It provides universal, free-at-the-point-of-use access to news, emergency broadcasts, and entertainment without requiring a broadband subscription, data cap, or sophisticated hardware. In a country with significant regional and remote communities where internet connectivity can be expensive or unreliable, as noted in the ACCC's Communications Market Reports, this is not a trivial advantage. It serves a vital public service and equity role.
The Regulatory Lifeline and Public Service Mandate
The Australian government, through legislation and the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), provides a structural buffer against pure market forces that would hasten FTA's demise. The anti-siphoning list, which prevents key sporting events of national significance from being exclusively acquired by pay-TV, is a direct lifeline. It ensures events like the AFL/NRL grand finals, the Olympics, and the Australian Open remain on free television, maintaining a core audience draw.
Furthermore, the public broadcasters, the ABC and SBS, have legislated mandates to provide comprehensive, universal services. Their funding, while perpetually debated, is not directly tied to commercial viability. From my observations across Australian businesses, these institutions are pivotal. They produce local content (drama, news, children's programming) that the commercial market may under-invest in, and they maintain transmission networks that commercial broadcasters often share. Their existence alone ensures a baseline, non-commercial FTA presence through 2035 and beyond.
The 2035 Scenario: Transformation, Not Extinction
Based on the converging trends of technology, regulation, and consumption, a complete disappearance of Australian free-to-air TV by 2035 is highly improbable. A radical transformation, however, is guaranteed. We are likely to see a stratified model emerge:
- The "Live & Local" Lifeline: The core FTA offering will contract around two pillars: mega-scale live events (sport, elections, breaking news) and hyper-local news/information. Broadcasters will become leaner, focusing resources on content that demands simultaneity and community relevance.
- The Hybrid Platform Dominance: The distinction between "broadcast" and "streaming" will blur into irrelevance. Networks will be platform-agnostic content hubs. Your evening news or a new drama series will be consumed via antenna, smart TV app, or mobile device interchangeably, with advertising dynamically inserted based on the platform.
- Technological Evolution: The underlying broadcast technology itself may evolve. Standards like ATSC 3.0 (already rolling out overseas) enable broadcast internet, allowing FTA signals to deliver on-demand content and targeted ads to compatible devices without a broadband connection, potentially revitalising the technical value proposition.
In practice, with Australia-based teams I've advised, the strategic focus has already shifted from defending the old model to building the hybrid future. The conversation is about data unification, cross-platform content budgets, and creating advertising products that measure total audience, not just overnight ratings.
Costly Strategic Errors for Australian Media Businesses
The path to 2035 is fraught with pitfalls. The graveyard will be filled with entities that made the following mistakes:
1. Clinging to Overnight Ratings as the Primary Metric: Basing success and ad rates solely on linear broadcast ratings is a path to irrelevance. Businesses must adopt a holistic "total audience" measurement that integrates BVOD, social video engagement, and time-shifted viewing to reflect true reach.
2. Under-investing in Local, Distinctive Content: In a globalised streaming world, local relevance is the killer app. Networks that cut back on quality Australian drama, investigative journalism, and local storytelling cede their unique value proposition and become easily replaceable.
3. Treating Digital as a Side Project: The digital platform cannot be a separate, under-resourced division. It must be the central nervous system of the modern media company, with technology, content, and commercial strategy fully integrated from the outset.
Future Trends & Predictions: The 2035 Australian Media Landscape
By 2035, we predict a consolidated, platform-driven landscape:
- Consolidation of Commercial Networks: The economic pressures may lead to further consolidation, potentially resulting in two major commercial "media hubs" operating multi-channel broadcast portfolios and dominant streaming services.
- The ABC as a Streaming-First Public Broadcaster: The ABC will likely transition to a primarily digital-first distribution model for most content, maintaining a slimmed-down broadcast service for emergency alerts and universal access, funded by a modernised version of the public broadcast fee integrated into broadband subscriptions.
- Broadcast Spectrum Re-allocation Debate: As data demands skyrocket, there will be intense political and commercial pressure to re-allocate precious broadcast spectrum (the 600MHz band) for 5G/6G mobile services. The survival of a robust FTA system will depend on winning this policy argument, highlighting its public good value.
People Also Ask (PAA)
What is the biggest advantage free-to-air TV still has over streaming? Its unparalleled, simultaneous reach for live events and its role as a universal, free public service. In moments of national significance or emergency, FTA TV provides a reliable, high-quality broadcast to virtually every household without dependency on individual internet infrastructure or subscriptions.
How are Australian free-to-air networks making money now? Through a diversified model: traditional spot advertising on linear channels; higher-margin, targeted advertising on their BVOD platforms (9Now, 7plus); subscription revenue from affiliated streaming services (e.g., Nine's Stan); and, for some, revenue from content production and licensing internationally.
Will I still need a TV antenna in 2035? Likely, but its use will be more specialised. You may use it primarily for receiving live local news, emergency service broadcasts, and major sport, while consuming the majority of your entertainment via internet-based apps, many of which will be owned by the same FTA networks.
Final Takeaway & Call to Action
The obituary for Australian free-to-air television is premature. To declare it completely gone by 2035 is to misunderstand its evolving role, its regulatory protection, and its deep-rooted, if changing, place in the national fabric. The era of FTA as the unchallenged centre of home entertainment is conclusively over. What is emerging is a more nuanced ecosystem where broadcast becomes one strand in a multi-platform strategy, valued for its unique strengths in live reach, universal access, and public service.
The call to action is for viewers, industry professionals, and policymakers alike: move beyond the binary "streaming vs. broadcast" debate. Engage with the total content ecosystem. Support quality Australian content regardless of its delivery pipe. And for those in the industry, the mandate is clear: innovate aggressively on platform and product, but never abandon the core mission of informing, entertaining, and connecting Australian communities—which is the enduring legacy, and future, of free-to-air television.
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