9 Views· 17 August 2022
Europe, BA 5 and monkeypox next
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European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control BA.4 and BA.5
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/....covid-19/variants-co
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/....news-events/epidemio
12th May, ECDC reclassified omicron subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5 as VOCs
First detected in South Africa in January and February 2022
Now dominant in SA
Both lineages contain L452R, F486V, and R493Q in the spike receptor binding domain
Significant change in antigenic properties of BA.4 and BA.5 compared to BA.1 and BA.2
Portugal
BA.5, increasing trend in variant proportions
With increase in case numbers and test positivity rate
Portuguese National Institute of Health
BA.5 already accounted for ~37% of positive cases as of 8 May
Daily growth advantage for BA.5 over BA.2 is 13%
(SA estimated 12% daily growth advantage)
BA.5 will become the dominant variant in Portugal by 22 May 2022
Growth advantage for BA.4 and BA.5
Evade immune protection induced by prior infection and/or vaccination,
particularly if this has waned over time
BA.4 and BA.5 are capable of escaping immune protection induced by infection with BA.1
No indication of any change in severity for BA.4/BA.5 compared to previous Omicron lineages.
These variants could cause a significant overall increase in cases in Europe
If COVID-19 case numbers increase substantially, some level of increased hospital
Countries should have plans in place for the rapid deployment of booster doses in these population groups.
Our world in data
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
US variant nowcast
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-da....ta-tracker/#variant-
South Africa
https://www.nicd.ac.za/disease....s-a-z-index/disease-
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
Technical briefing 41
https://assets.publishing.serv....ice.gov.uk/governmen
V-22APR-03 (Omicron sub-lineage BA.4) and V-22APR-04 (Omicron sub-lineage BA.5)
As of 3 May 2022
BA.4 40 genomes
BA.5 19 genomes
Monkeypox update
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23142251/
Massachusetts public health officials confirm case of monkeypox
https://www.mass.gov/news/mass....achusetts-public-hea
An adult male with recent travel to Canada
Australia
https://www.theguardian.com/au....stralia-news/2022/ma
Victoria, man 30s traveller from UK
NSW, man 40s traveller from Europe
Jennifer McQuiston at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
https://www.statnews.com/2022/05/18/spain-portugal-report-monkeypox-cases-raising-specter-of-wider-outbreak/?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=7a51987021-briefing-dy-20220519&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-7a51987021-44762053
We’re seeing this expansion of confirmed and suspect cases globally
We have a sense that no one has their arms around this to know how large and expansive it might be
Maria Van Kerkhove, emerging diseases and zoonoses unit, World Health Organization
Positive cases identified in the U.K., Portugal, and Spain (Sweden)
And we expect there will be others
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