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In the past two years or so we have seen many headlines about extreme weather events: floods, droughts, heat waves, hurricanes. In some cases, climate scientists claim they can "attribute" those extreme weather events to climate change. But what exactly does that mean? How does one calculate this? And how reliable are those estimates? This video is a brief intro into the young research area of extreme event attribution.

The BBC article I mention at 1 min 23 seconds is here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/scien....ce-environment-58309

And the Nature article I quote directly after this is here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01869-0

The Nature comment from Myles Allen which I mention at 1 min 47 secs is here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/421891a

The review article about extreme event attribution which I mention several times (and which is very recommendable) is available here:

https://link.springer.com/arti....cle/10.1007/s10584-0

The CNN article with the Michael Mann quote that I show at 8 mins is here:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/0....7/20/world/climate-c

And the quote I read at 11 mins 20 seconds is from here:

https://www.worldweatherattrib....ution.org/bushfires-

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0:00 Intro
0:49 What is Extreme Event Attribution?
4:12 What do the numbers mean?
5:05 Problem 1: Event classes are ambiguous
6:47 Problem 2: Models underestimate tails
12:16 Sponsor message

#science #climate