US, 1 million deaths this week, 100 million cases this fall and winter

1918 / 1919

At least 50 million worldwide

675,000 in the United States

(Population 105 million)

Mortality was high in

Younger than 5 years old

20-40 years old

65 years and older

National Center for Health Statistics

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/index.htm

More than 1 million deaths

Higher death rate than in any other major industrialized country

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten....t/medrxiv/early/2022

Life expectancy, biggest drop since 1918

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volum....es/71/wr/mm7104e2.ht

Overwhelmingly unvaccinated

Mostly old, low income, Black, Hispanic

2020

Heart disease, cancer, Covid

Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States (Pen State)

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2007476117

9 million who have lost a close relative

Grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, child

US cases / infections

Probably start to go down from late May

BA.2.12.1 subvariant set to overtake BA.2

Cases may increase in the South over summer

Biden administration

100 million infections fall and winter 2022

Waning immunity, vaccines and infections

Variant immune escape

Loosened restrictions

Projections assume omicron and subvariants will continue to dominate community spread

No dramatically different strain of the virus

Seroprevalence of Infection-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies — United States, September 2021–February 2022

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volum....es/71/wr/mm7117e3.ht

Convenience sample of blood specimens, for anti-N antibodies

As of February 2022

18 to 49 years, 63.7%

50 to 64 years, 49.8%

Over 65s, 33.2%

Children and adolescents

75% of had serologic evidence of previous infection

High infection rate for Omicron, especially among children.

Should not be interpreted as protection from future infection

Vaccination remains the safest strategy for preventing complications from SARS-CoV-2 infection

COVID-19 Results Briefing, United States of America, April 7, 2022

https://www.healthdata.org/sit....es/default/files/fil

76% of people in the US have been infected at least once as of April 4

Do not suggest a substantial BA.2 surge in the US

But if we do, last for 3 weeks

There is not sufficient evidence at this time that BA.2 spread warrants a broader push on a fourth booster, except in those at high risk.

Pfizer and Moderna

Working on new booster shots

Combine different variants of the virus